The Fall and Rise of Small Businesses

What happened to small businesses, government aid, and racial inequality during the pandemic and subsequent economic recovery.

The Fall and Rise of Small Businesses provides the first comprehensive analysis of the plight of small businesses, social distancing restrictions, racial inequality, government aid, and broader measures of the US economy during the pandemic and economic recovery. Robert Fairlie weaves evidence from the most up-to-date data on business activity, as well as novel data on PPP receipt and business outcomes recently released by the US Census Bureau, to tell a compelling story of what happened over one of the most important and disruptive five-year periods of economic history—from the first cases of COVID in the United States to five years later in the recovery.

Although small businesses were severely affected by mandated social distancing restrictions to slow the spread of COVID-19, business activity has more than recovered five years later. The economic recovery has been strong, especially for Black, Latinx, and Asian business activity. But retail trade and restaurants have not fully recovered, leading to a visible struggle in many shopping districts and downtown areas. Though the federal government pumped roughly a trillion dollars into aid for small businesses, we have yet to see a complete picture of the costs and benefits of these expenditures. AI, robots, and consumer trends make predictions even more challenging, but the new findings in this book will be key in helping policymakers, business leaders, and small business owners move forward.